YX 3502 · EYW → EWR

departs 2:16 PM ET · arrives 5:43 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±6 pts +16 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
36%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
33%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at EYW that day

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

EYW (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip2.37 in

EWR (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3502 · EYW → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?