YX 3537 · PWM → EWR

departs 8:12 AM ET · arrives 9:56 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 14h after departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

8% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.25 mi forecast at PWM that day

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ PWM is prone to delays

↓ 8am departures from PWM are usually not late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

Weather at each end

PWM (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3537 · PWM → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?