Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3539
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
YX 3539 · IND → ORD
departs 8:00 AM ET · arrives 8:22 AM CT
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 37h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Wed 9/30 16%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 7%
Sat 10/3 7%
Sun 10/4 8%
Mon 10/5 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±2 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IND
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
IND (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.11 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.