Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3540
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
YX 3540 · IAD → PIT
departs 10:30 PM ET · arrives 11:36 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 12:00 PM ET · 10h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 20%
Sat 10/3 11%
Sun 10/4 13%
Mon 10/5 10%
Tue 10/6 9%
Wed 10/7 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±0 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at PIT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PIT?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into PIT at that hour are often late
↑
IAD is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
IAD (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
PIT (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.