YX 3565 · ORD → CMH

departs 12:54 PM CT · arrives 3:23 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±1 pts −7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to CMH?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 12pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 20% of the time recently

↓ YX's recent on-time record

↓ CMH usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.93 in

CMH (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3565 · ORD → CMH

Odds over time

How late will it get to CMH?