Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3575
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
YX 3575 · CLE → ORD
departs 4:15 PM ET · arrives 5:00 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 22h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 51%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 18%
Sat 10/3 18%
Sun 10/4 19%
Mon 10/5 17%
Tue 10/6 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
56%
chance · ±13 pts
+10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
56%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
25%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
56%
Yes 56%
No 44%
Leave CLE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
42%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
23%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
11%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
CLE (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 6,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.96 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.