Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3582
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
YX 3582 · PWM → IAD
departs 7:16 PM ET · arrives 9:14 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 37h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 9%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 16%
Sat 10/3 8%
Sun 10/4 12%
Mon 10/5 11%
Tue 10/6 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave PWM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at IAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into IAD at that hour are often late
↑
PWM is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
PWM (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip none
IAD (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.