Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3595
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
YX 3595 · RIC → ORD
departs 10:30 AM ET · arrives 11:59 AM CT
Forecast issued Thu 1:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 13%
Sat 10/3 9%
Sun 10/4 14%
Mon 10/5 12%
Tue 10/6 12%
Wed 10/7 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±5 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave RIC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RIC
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
RIC (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 6 mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.92 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.