Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3597
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
YX 3597 · MSY → ORD
departs 5:35 PM CT · arrives 8:28 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 13h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 31%
Sat 10/3 18%
Sun 10/4 31%
Mon 10/5 29%
Tue 10/6 34%
Wed 10/7 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
49%
chance · ±0 pts
−14 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
49%
Leave 15+ late
64%
Arrive 1h+ late
36%
Cancelled
6%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −14 pts in 24h
−14 pts
49%
Yes 49%
No 51%
Leave MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +19 pts in 24h
+19 pts
64%
Yes 64%
No 36%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
17%
Over 2 hours late
17%
Cancelled
6%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
5pm departures from MSY are often late
↓
Other factors
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MSY (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.09 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.88 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.