YX 3607 · ORD → ORF

departs 6:19 PM CT · arrives 9:51 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORF?

On time or early
41%
15–30 min late
25%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 6pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORF

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.90 in

ORF (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3607 · ORD → ORF

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORF?