YX 3611 · XNA → EWR

departs 2:54 PM CT · arrives 7:05 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±2 pts −8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 29 kt, 0.9 in of rain forecast at XNA that day

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↓ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

Weather at each end

XNA (origin) Gusts29 kt Ceiling3,800 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.20 in

EWR (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3611 · XNA → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?