Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3615
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
YX 3615 · IAD → BOS
departs 3:30 PM ET · arrives 5:24 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 3:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 23%
Sat 10/3 13%
Sun 10/4 25%
Mon 10/5 26%
Tue 10/6 18%
Wed 10/7 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
BOS is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
IAD (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
BOS (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.