YX 3623 · EWR → CVG

departs 6:13 PM ET · arrives 8:18 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to CVG?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 6pm departures from EWR are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CVG (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3623 · EWR → CVG

Odds over time

How late will it get to CVG?