YX 3625 · GRR → EWR

departs 4:56 PM ET · arrives 6:58 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±2 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at GRR that day

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ GRR usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

GRR (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip1.30 in

EWR (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3625 · GRR → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?