Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3626
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
YX 3626 · EWR → ORF
departs 8:30 AM ET · arrives 10:03 AM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 14h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 6%
Sun 10/4 10%
Mon 10/5 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±0 pts
−10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at ORF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORF?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
EWR is busy at that time
↑
8am departures from EWR are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 5,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORF (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.