Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3626
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
YX 3626 · ROC → EWR
departs 6:00 AM ET · arrives 7:20 AM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 16h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 10%
Sun 10/4 3%
Mon 10/5 4%
Fri 10/9 4%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
5%
chance · ±0 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
5%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Leave ROC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
EWR is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
6am departures from ROC are usually not late
Weather at each end
ROC (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 4,100 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 2.09 in
EWR (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 5,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.