YX 3651 · GSP → EWR

departs 7:00 PM ET · arrives 9:20 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

GSP (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling1,400 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3651 · GSP → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?