YX 3684 · CVG → EWR

departs 11:48 AM ET · arrives 1:59 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 3:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±1 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ EWR is busy at that time

↑ 11am departures from CVG are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

CVG (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3684 · CVG → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?