YX 3710 · STL → EWR

departs 4:57 PM CT · arrives 8:51 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 8:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

32% chance · ±3 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at STL

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

STL (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling2,857 ft Visibility5.71429 mi Precip0.13 in

EWR (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3710 · STL → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?