YX 4338 · LGA → MSN

departs 6:10 PM ET · arrives 7:49 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MSN?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MSN (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precip1.26 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4338 · LGA → MSN

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSN?