YX 4339 · DTW → LGA

departs 2:11 PM ET · arrives 4:11 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±0 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ 2pm departures from DTW are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at DTW that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ DTW usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DTW (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling5,240 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.15 in

LGA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4339 · DTW → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?