Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4341
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
YX 4341 · LGA → TUL
departs 7:29 PM ET · arrives 10:08 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 23%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 28%
Sat 10/3 10%
Sun 10/4 26%
Mon 10/5 21%
Tue 10/6 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at TUL more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±7 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TUL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at TUL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TUL?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 1.7 in of rain forecast at TUL that day
↑
7pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TUL (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 1.72 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.