YX 4349 · ATL → LGA

departs 3:31 PM ET · arrives 6:01 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 10h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from ATL are often late

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

ATL (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4349 · ATL → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?