YX 4349 · LGA → ATL

departs 12:38 PM ET · arrives 3:09 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ATL?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at ATL that day

↑ Arrivals into ATL at that hour are often late

↑ ATL is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ ATL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ATL (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4349 · LGA → ATL

Odds over time

How late will it get to ATL?