Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4350
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
YX 4350 · ORD → JFK
departs 10:51 AM CT · arrives 2:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 37h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 17%
Sat 10/3 18%
Sun 10/4 20%
Mon 10/5 15%
Tue 10/6 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±4 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.5 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
10am departures from ORD are often late
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↓
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.48 in
JFK (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.