YX 4362 · BOS → SDF

departs 1:16 PM ET · arrives 3:59 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SDF?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from BOS are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SDF (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4362 · BOS → SDF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SDF?