YX 4377 · MCI → ORD

departs 5:10 AM CT · arrives 6:57 AM CT

Forecast issued Thu 1:00 AM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

10% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, 1.8 in of rain forecast at MCI that day

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from MCI are usually not late

Weather at each end

MCI (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility3 mi Precip1.22 in

ORD (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.86 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4377 · MCI → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?