Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4386
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
YX 4386 · BOS → ORD
departs 1:01 PM ET · arrives 3:10 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 33h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 15%
Sat 10/3 14%
Sun 10/4 14%
Mon 10/5 15%
Tue 10/6 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±10 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.2 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Other factors
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 1 mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.23 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.