Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4387
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
YX 4387 · LGA → CLE
departs 8:16 AM ET · arrives 10:04 AM ET
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 30h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 9%
Sat 10/3 6%
Sun 10/4 6%
Mon 10/5 9%
Tue 10/6 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at CLE more than 15 minutes late?
5%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
5%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
2.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CLE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at CLE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CLE?
On time or early
95%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
CLE (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 7,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.