YX 4392 · DTW → PHL

departs 12:52 PM ET · arrives 2:53 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from DTW are often late

↑ PHL is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↓ DTW usually runs smoothly

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

DTW (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling5,240 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.15 in

PHL (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4392 · DTW → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?