YX 4397 · JFK → BOS

departs 3:31 PM ET · arrives 4:47 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 8:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts +13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BOS?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late

↑ 3pm departures from JFK are often late

↑ JFK is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

BOS (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4397 · JFK → BOS

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOS?