YX 4404 · ILM → LGA

departs 6:09 PM ET · arrives 8:05 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 1:00 AM ET · 17h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

ILM (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4404 · ILM → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?