YX 4406 · PWM → PHL

departs 5:31 AM ET · arrives 7:19 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

6% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.25 mi forecast at PWM that day

↑ PWM is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

PWM (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4406 · PWM → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?