YX 4422 · JFK → IND

departs 3:37 PM ET · arrives 5:54 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±1 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to IND?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from JFK are often late

↑ JFK is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

IND (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4422 · JFK → IND

Odds over time

How late will it get to IND?