YX 4426 · OKC → LGA

departs 4:29 PM CT · arrives 9:05 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

29% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ Gusts to 26 kt, cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.6 in of rain forecast at OKC that day

↑ 4pm departures from OKC are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

OKC (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1 mi Precip1.62 in

LGA (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4426 · OKC → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?