Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4437
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
YX 4437 · IND → LGA
departs 5:27 PM ET · arrives 7:39 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Sun 10/4 41%
Mon 10/5 30%
Fri 10/9 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±2 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 36% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
IND (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.