Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4440
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
YX 4440 · BOS → BUF
departs 1:55 PM ET · arrives 3:44 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 26h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Thu 10/1
Sun 10/4 11%
Mon 10/5 11%
Tue 10/6 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±1 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at BUF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BUF?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at BUF
↑
1pm departures from BOS are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
BUF usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
BUF (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.