Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4440
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
YX 4440 · BUF → BOS
departs 4:15 PM ET · arrives 5:57 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Thu 10/1
Sun 10/4 23%
Mon 10/5 23%
Tue 10/6 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±2 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave BUF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 25 kt forecast at BUF that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late
↓
Visibility down to 1 mi forecast at BOS that day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
BUF (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
BOS (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 1 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.