Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4445
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
YX 4445 · ORD → CMH
departs 8:55 PM CT · arrives 11:33 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 4h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 19%
Sat 10/3 9%
Sun 10/4 22%
Mon 10/5 13%
Tue 10/6 14%
Wed 10/7 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?
61%
chance · ±0 pts
+10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
61%
Leave 15+ late
55%
Arrive 1h+ late
57%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
61%
Yes 61%
No 39%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +20 pts in 24h
+20 pts
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Arrive at CMH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +43 pts in 24h
+43 pts
57%
Yes 57%
No 43%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to CMH?
On time or early
39%
15–30 min late
30%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
21%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,000 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
8pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.74 in
CMH (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.