YX 4449 · LGA → STL

departs 2:26 PM ET · arrives 4:19 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to STL?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2.66667 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at STL that day

↑ 2pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

STL (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling567 ft Visibility2.66667 mi Precip0.57 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4449 · LGA → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?