YX 4449 · STL → LGA

departs 4:31 PM CT · arrives 8:14 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 9:00 AM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2.66667 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at STL that day

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ STL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

STL (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling667 ft Visibility3.33333 mi Precip0.21 in

LGA (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4449 · STL → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?