YX 4450 · STL → LGA

departs 5:59 AM CT · arrives 9:43 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 3:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

6% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2.66667 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at STL that day

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ LGA is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

Weather at each end

STL (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling2,600 ft Visibility4.33333 mi Precip0.36 in

LGA (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4450 · STL → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?