YX 4467 · ORD → PIT

departs 9:43 AM CT · arrives 12:24 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±2 pts −16 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PIT?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 9am departures from ORD are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ YX's recent on-time record

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.75 in

PIT (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4467 · ORD → PIT

Odds over time

How late will it get to PIT?