YX 4472 · LGA → XNA

departs 1:42 PM ET · arrives 3:53 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to XNA?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1.0 in of rain forecast at XNA that day

↑ 1pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ XNA usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

XNA (destination) Gusts29 kt Ceiling3,800 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.38 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4472 · LGA → XNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to XNA?