YX 4480 · YUL → PHL

departs 4:16 PM EDT · arrives 6:09 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Other factors

↓ Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at PHL that day

Weather at each end

YUL (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

PHL (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4480 · YUL → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?