Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4492
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
YX 4492 · RDU → ORD
departs 7:14 PM ET · arrives 9:11 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Sun 10/4 22%
Mon 10/5 18%
Fri 10/9 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
68%
chance · ±2 pts
+10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
68%
Leave 15+ late
45%
Arrive 1h+ late
36%
Cancelled
7%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 68% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
68%
Yes 68%
No 32%
Leave RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 36% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
29%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
28%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
17%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,000 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Other factors
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
RDU (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.48 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.