Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4493
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
YX 4493 · PIT → RDU
departs 5:00 PM ET · arrives 6:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 12h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 12%
Sat 10/3 14%
Sun 10/4 14%
Mon 10/5 9%
Tue 10/6 10%
Wed 10/7 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±0 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2.9d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave PIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into RDU at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
5pm departures from PIT are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
Weather at each end
PIT (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
RDU (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.