YX 4503 · ORD → RDU

departs 4:05 PM CT · arrives 7:19 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

56% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to RDU?

On time or early
42%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 4pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.48 in

RDU (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4503 · ORD → RDU

Odds over time

How late will it get to RDU?