Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4511
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
YX 4511 · ORD → CHA
departs 8:59 PM CT · arrives 11:51 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 25%
Mon 10/5 15%
Fri 10/9 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at CHA more than 15 minutes late?
63%
chance · ±0 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
63%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
25%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CHA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 60% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
63%
Yes 63%
No 37%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at CHA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to CHA?
On time or early
36%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.8 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
8pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
This flight has been late 31% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CHA
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.48 in
CHA (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.