Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4516
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
YX 4516 · TVC → BOS
departs 1:15 PM ET · arrives 3:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Wed 9/30 22%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 16%
Sat 10/3 14%
Sun 10/4 22%
Mon 10/5 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave TVC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at TVC that day
↑
Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late
↑
BOS is busy at that time
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS
Weather at each end
TVC (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.12 in
BOS (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 3 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.